2026 Hawaii Real Estate Outlook: What to expect in the year ahead
If 2025 felt like a year in flux, 2026 is promising more stability. Nationally, experts expect a healthier balance between buyers and sellers. However, Hawaii continues to follow its own rhythm shaped by strong demand and limited supply.
National Snapshot
- Mortgage Rates: Most forecasts keep rates in the low 6% range for 2026—slightly lower than 2025 but still above pre-pandemic norms.
- Home Prices: Expect modest appreciation nationally, roughly 1–4%, with regional variation.
- Sales & Inventory: Existing-home sales should increase as affordability improves and more owners release their “rate lock” of ultra-low pandemic mortgage rates to re-enter the market. Inventory will rise in many areas, giving buyers more choices.
What it means: The U.S. market is moving toward balance, but real estate is always local—and Hawaii’s story is different.
Hawaii’s Market: Still Unique
At the recent Honolulu Board of REALTORS® Economic Forum, NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun described Hawaii’s market as a “healthy recalibration.” We’re not seeing dramatic swings—just steady conditions shaped by strong demand and limited supply.
- Prices: Local forecasts point to about 4% growth in 2026.
- Inventory: Single-family homes remain tight, while condos offer more choices in select areas.
- Sales: Activity is picking up as more sellers enter the market. Oahu saw an 18.7% rise in single-family home sales in November, with a year-to-date median of $1,141,500.
- Mortgage Rates: Expect averages around 6.3%, which helps affordability a bit compared to last year.
FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions)
Are rates finally dropping?
We’re seeing a slight improvement, but don’t expect a dramatic plunge. Most forecasts keep rates in the low 6% range for 2026—better than last year, but still above pre-pandemic levels. If you’re planning to buy, it often makes sense to move forward with today’s numbers and consider refinancing later if rates dip further.
Is Hawaii a buyer’s market now?
Not for single-family homes—those remain competitive due to limited inventory. Condos, however, offer more choices and a bit more negotiating room in certain neighborhoods. It really depends on the property type and location, which is why local insight matters.
Should buyers wait for prices to fall?
Most experts expect modest price growth rather than declines, so waiting could mean missing out on opportunities. If the right home comes along and fits your budget, it’s often better to act now than to gamble on timing the market.
What is my home worth?
Values vary widely by neighborhood, property type, and recent sales nearby. Even small updates can influence price. If you’d like a clear picture of where your home stands today—or what steps could help maximize its value—I’d be happy to provide a personalized market snapshot.
Why Real Estate Still Matters
Dr. Yun reminded us that real estate remains one of the best hedges against inflation. Over time, property values tend to rise with the cost of living—offering both shelter and long-term financial protection. In a time when everyday costs keep climbing, owning a home remains one of the most reliable ways to build stability and long-term wealth.
What This Means for You
Markets are shifting, and every neighborhood responds differently. How can these changes support your goals? Whether it’s planning for that home you’ve always imagined--sunset views, a bigger kitchen for family gatherings, or passing the keys to someone who will love your home as much as you—I’d love to help turn those ideas into a plan that’s right for you.
Neighborhood Snapshots
Every neighborhood tells its own story. Here’s a quick look at three areas many of you ask about:
Manoa
Lush, historic, with coveted public and private schools and the University of Hawaii in close proximity. Inventory is scarce in this highly desirable neighborhood, and well-kept homes often attract strong interest and multiple offers.
Through November 2025, there were 57 sales of single-family homes sales compared to 61 at the same time last year, a decrease of 7%. The median sales price stayed consistent compared to last year at $1,655,000, just slightly lower by 2.6% compared to $1,699,000 last year. Single-family homes stayed on the market an average of 39 days in 2025, compared to 49 median days in 2024.
Due to the suburban neighborhood of Manoa, there were just seven sales of condos/townhomes which were located in the University area.
Hawaii Kai
Marina living, ocean views, and an upscale suburb neighborhood keep this community in demand. Condos and townhomes offer more entry points for buyers in Hawaii Kai which offers an active lifestyle with beaches, hikes, golf, parks and marina access for a variety of sports and hobbies.
Closed single-family home sales totaled 140 through November 2025, an increase of 9% compared to the same time last year. The median sales price is $1,612,500, a decrease of 4% from $1,675,000 last year. Median days on market is 14 days for homes in Hawaii Kai, a few days faster than 17 days on market in 2024.
For condos and townhomes, there was a total of 140 homes sold through November 2025, a 9% increase from 129 sold the same time last year. The median sales price was $850,000 which increased 4% from $820,000 in 2024, however days on market increased to 36 days in 2025 which marked a 177% increase from a median 13 days on market in 2024.
Kaneohe
Kaneohe offers the windward charm of the beautiful Koolau mountain and bay views. Pricing is generally more approachable than east Honolulu, but inventory remains tight.
Through November 2025, there were 177 sales of single-family homes sales compared to 188 at the same time last year, a decrease of 6%. The median sales price crept up to $1,250,000 in 2025 compared to 2024 at $1,217,000, an increase of 3%. Single-family homes stayed on the market for a median of 13 days in 2025, compared to 15 days in 2024.
Condo and townhome sales in Kaneohe totaled 151 through November 2025, about the same level as 2024 which totaled 149.The median sales price was $660,000 in 2025 compared to $695,000 in 2024. Days on market through November 2025 landed at a median of 22 days which reflects an increase of 47% compared to 15 days in 2024.
CU Brings a Taste of Seoul to Downtown Honolulu
Popular Korean Convenience Store Opens 1st U.S. Location in Honolulu
If you’ve ever explored the streets of South Korea, you know CU is everywhere. It’s the go-to spot for quick bites, late-night ramen, and quirky snacks. When I visited Seoul earlier this year, CU was my daily stop. There seemed to be one on every corner! My favorites? Banana milk, rice balls, and those make-your-own iced drinks.
Now, Honolulu gets its own slice of K-convenience heaven. CU, South Korea’s largest convenience store chain with nearly 19,000 locations worldwide, has opened its first-ever U.S. store right in downtown Honolulu. You’ll find it on Fort Street Mall, in the space that once housed Longs Drugs and later Walmart. If you’ve been around a while, you probably remember that spot!
So, what makes CU worth visiting?
- Ramen Wall + Cooking Stations: Pick from dozens of ramyun varieties and cook them on-site.
- Exclusive Korean Snacks & Drinks: Banana milk, yogurt, rice balls, custom coffee drinks, and even the famous tornado potato.
- Local Collabs: Chef Sheldon Simeon’s Ho‘ina line adds island flavors like garlic noodles and smoked ahi onigiri. Plus, Kūha‘o Zane brings specialty products with Hawaiian flair.
- Korean Beauty Products: If you know, you know.
This isn’t just a convenience store—it’s an experience. Whether you’re craving authentic Korean snacks or want to try something new, CU brings a taste of Seoul to Honolulu in a way that feels fresh and fun.
🎥 Watch the grand opening video here.
Next time you’re downtown, stop by CU and see why it’s Korea’s favorite convenience store. Trust me—you’ll want to snap a few photos and grab a banana milk while you’re there!
Oahu Market Update: Oct 2025
Choices expand. Prices adjust. Buyers act.
Inventory is growing across Oahu, giving buyers more options than we’ve seen in months. Single-family home listings are up 3.7% year-over-year, while condo listings jumped 7.4%. Popular neighborhoods like Hawaii Kai, Kaneohe, Makakilo, and Waipahu are seeing more choices for buyers looking to make a move.
Sales remain steady overall, but pricing trends are shifting. Single-family home sales held flat compared to last year with 261 transactions. Condo sales rose 9.4%, reaching 443 units. Luxury homes priced at $1.9M and above surged 39%, though most closed below asking price. Meanwhile, mid-range single-family sales between $700K–$999K dipped nearly 19%.
What Sellers Should Know
Competitive pricing matters more than ever. If you’re thinking of selling, success today means:
- Setting prices based on current market trends
- Addressing repairs and unknowns upfront
- Partnering with an agent who maximizes your property’s visibility and value
Homebuying Momentum
Mortgage applications for conventional, FHA, and VA loans are climbing. Buyers nationwide are taking advantage of more inventory and slower price growth. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, this is the strongest start to November since 2022.
Prices at a Glance
- Single-family median: $1,162,500 (↑ 5.7% vs. 2024)
- Condo median: $535,000 (↑ 1.9% vs. 2024)
Bottom Line
With more homes on the market and prices leveling off, there’s opportunity for both buyers and sellers. Whether you’re planning to buy or sell, now is the time to explore your options. Curious what this means for your home or next move? Let’s connect.
Exclusive Sneak Peek: East Honolulu’s First New Luxury Community in Over 20 Years
Imagine waking up to soft ocean breezes and golden sunlight streaming through your windows. Picture evenings spent on your lanai, enjoying the calm beauty of East Honolulu. This is more than a home—it’s a lifestyle. And now, you have the chance to make it yours.
You’re among the first to hear about a rare new community in East Honolulu. It’s the first development of its kind in over two decades. Only 14 residences will be available, making this an opportunity you don’t want to miss.
These homes are designed for modern island living. Open floor plans create bright, airy spaces filled with natural light. High ceilings and expansive outdoor areas make indoor-outdoor living effortless. Every detail speaks of quality and comfort. You’ll enjoy Sub-Zero refrigerators, Wolf cooking appliances, and Cove washer/dryers—premium finishes that elevate your everyday life.
Sustainability is built in. Each home includes photovoltaic panels with battery backup and dedicated EV charging stations. That means lower energy costs and a greener footprint without sacrificing luxury.
Choose from two spacious layouts: a 4-bedroom, 4.5-bath floor plan at approximately 2,736 sq. ft., or a slightly smaller 4-bedroom, 3.5-bath option at about 2,594 sq. ft. Completion is projected for 2027. With starting prices from $2.5 million, these homes represent great value compared to recent single-family resales of older homes in the area.
If you’ve been waiting for something truly exceptional in East Honolulu, this could be it. Want to take a closer look?Please reach out for more details to decide whether one of these residences may be the perfect fit for your lifestyle.

A True Gem in Diamond Head: Historic Hawaiian Cottage
Not every standout listing is grand or flashy—some are simply timeless. One of my favorite listings this year is a modest, yet iconic Hawaiian-style cottage tucked in the heart of Diamond Head. Listed by my colleague Doug Shanefield and just steps from one of my longtime surf spots, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home at 3030 Kalakaua Avenue is a rare treasure. I got a first look before it hit the market, and had a hunch it wouldn’t last long. I was right—it went under contract in just three days, listed at $3.5M.
What makes this home truly special is its history. It was the original residence of Charles W. Dickey, one of Hawaii’s most influential architects, known for pioneering a distinct “Hawaiian style” of architecture. Dickey’s signature double-pitched hip roof, now famously known as the Dickey roof, graces this cottage, which is listed on the National Register of Historic Places. Built in 1926, the home features board-and-batten siding, acid-stained concrete floors, and a backyard oasis that feels worlds away from the city bustle.
This listing is more than a home. It’s a piece of Hawaii’s architectural legacy. It’s a reminder that charm, history, and location can come together beautifully in a home that feels like an authentic island treasure.
First Look: The Park on Keeaumoku Opens
Just opened in September, The Park on Keeaumoku is Midtown Ala Moana’s newest residential condominium!
I’ve been following its journey since 2021, when I first invited clients to the showroom to explore renderings and imagine what this vibrant development could become. Fast forward to today, and the finished project is even more than I imagined. Owners who are moving in and seeing their home for the first time are equally as esctatic. From the sleek, modern interiors to the expansive 14th-floor infinity pool with panoramic views of the ocean, mountains, and city skyline, the design truly delivers. I especially love the thoughtful landscaping and open-air layout that creates a sense of calm and space, even in the heart of Honolulu.
The amenities are resort-worthy: private cabanas, a spacious fitness center with skyline views, co-working spaces, a movie theater, and more. The first floors will soon welcome Midtown Eats, a food hall featuring a sports bar, wine bar, and local eateries, along with retail and shared workspaces. It’s exciting to see this new community come to life, blending convenience, lifestyle, and connection.
There are still limited developer units available, along with a few never-lived-in resale units from original owners—offering a rare chance to own brand-new in one of Honolulu’s most walkable and dynamic neighborhoods. If you’re curious or want to take a look, I’m happy to share details and arrange a visit!
Here’s a short video on my recent visit to the new Park on Keeaumoku.
Oahu Market Update: September 2025
Buyer Activity Accelerates as Sales Rebound in September
Oahu’s housing market showed renewed momentum in September 2025, with both single-family home and condominium sales posting strong year-over-year gains. Buyers are re-engaging with the market, taking advantage of expanded inventory, adjusted price points, and a more balanced pace of transactions.
Key highlights from September 2025
- Single-family home sales rose 27.2% year-over-year, from 217 to 276 closed transactions
- Condominium sales increased 11.5%, from 366 to 408 units sold
- Median sales price for single-family homes climbed to $1,155,000, up 3.8% from September 2024
- Condo median price dipped slightly to $508,750, down 1.7% year-over-year
- Days on market increased: 26 days for single-family homes (up from 19), and 40 days for condos (up from 31).
Buyer behavior and market dynamics
The longer days on market reflect a more deliberate pace among buyers, who are carefully evaluating their options amid changing conditions. Elevated inventory levels are giving buyers more choices, especially in mid-range and entry-level price segments.
Price segments driving sales growth
- Single-family homes:
- $800,000–$899,999: +81.0% (from 21 to 38 sales)
- $1.4M–$1.59M: +100% (from 17 to 34 sales)
- Condos:
- $100,000–$299,999: +118.8% (from 32 to 70 sales)
- $500,000–$599,999: +63.6% (from 44 to 72 sales)
These segments indicate strong buyer demand in both affordable and mid-tier price ranges, suggesting that buyers are responding to more favorable pricing and increased inventory.
Inventory and Listing Update
- Active inventory:
- Single-family homes: +5.7%
- Condos: +23.3%
- New listings:
- Single-family homes: 330 listings, down 6.0%
- Condos: 638 listings, up 1.1%
- Year-to-date new listings remain ahead:
- Single-family homes: +7.0%
- Condos: +12.0%
Expert insight
“We’re seeing buyers respond to increased inventory and more favorable pricing, especially in mid-range and entry-level segments,” said Mike James, president of Coldwell Banker Realty. “The September rebound in closed sales is a strong indicator that buyers are re-engaging with the market as conditions become more balanced.”
What this means for buyers and sellers
For buyers: Now is a strategic time to enter the market. With more inventory and slower pace, you have room to negotiate and find the right fit.
For sellers: Pricing competitively and preparing your home for market are key. Homes are still selling, especially in popular price ranges, but buyers are more selective.
Looking ahead
As we move into the final quarter of 2025, expect continued buyer interest, especially if inventory remains elevated and mortgage rates stabilize. Whether you’re buying or selling, working with a knowledgeable local agent can help you navigate this evolving landscape.
Market Update: July 2025
Market sees modest momentum as inventory grows and buyers gain leverage
Oʻahu’s housing market showed signs of renewed activity in June, with a modest increase in sales and continued growth in inventory—giving buyers more options and greater negotiating power.
More sellers are entering the market, contributing to the growing inventory. New listings for single-family homes jumped 19.2% year-over-year, while condo listings rose 7.9%. Active inventory also remains elevated, with 861 single-family homes and 2,542 condos on the market—up 31.9% and 47% respectively from a year ago.
“Buyers today are navigating a market with more options and more time to make decisions,” said Mike James, president of Coldwell Banker Realty. “That’s a significant shift from the fast-paced environment we saw just a couple of years ago. With inventory rising and price adjustments becoming more common, especially in the condo segment, buyers are in a stronger position to find the right fit.”
Sales activity was strongest in the mid-range price points. Single-family homes priced between $800,000 and $1,099,999 saw a 28.2% increase in sales. In the Ewa Plain region, pending sales surged 44.4%, reflecting renewed buyer interest. Condo buyers were most active in the $100,000 to $699,999 range, which accounted for 259 sales—an 11.2% increase from June 2024. Pending condo sales also rose sharply in Hawaii Kai, Waipahu, and Ewa Plain.
With more inventory and a more deliberate pace among buyers, homes are spending longer on the market. In June, the median days on market rose to 24 days for single-family homes and 40 days for condos—about one to two weeks longer than a year ago. Only a few regions, including Hawaii Kai, Kailua, Kaneohe, and Waipahu, saw condos selling in under 30 days.
Affordability remains a key concern, particularly in the condominium segment, where 42% of active listings in June showed price reductions. In response to rising insurance costs and limited coverage options, a new state law may offer some relief. On July 7, Governor Josh Green signed Senate Bill 1044 into law as Act 296, aimed at stabilizing the condo insurance market.
The legislation reactivates the Hawai‘i Hurricane Relief Fund to provide hurricane coverage for condo associations that have been denied insurance, and establishes a low-interest loan program to help aging buildings complete critical repairs that impact insurability. The bill was developed in the wake of the 2023 Maui wildfires, which caused $13 billion in damage and led to $3 billion in insurance payouts, prompting many insurers to exit the market.
Governor Green described the law as a step toward restoring stability. Already, 80 condo associations have applied for repair loans, with 10 approved since the program opened in late June.
The hope is that Act 296 will encourage insurers to return to the market and offer more competitive rates—especially for older, mid-range condo buildings that house many local residents.
For more information on the new law and relief programs, visit hhrf.hawaii.gov. Source: Honolulu Star-Advertiser, July 8, 2025
Sales of Single-Family Homes and Condos | June 2025
Source: Honolulu Board of REALTORS®, compiled from MLS data

Oʻahu’s housing market saw a modest lift in June, with single-family home sales rising 12% year-over-year, from 258 in June 2024 to 289 this year. Despite the monthly gain, year-to-date sales remain slightly behind last year’s pace, down 2.1% with 1,334 homes sold in the first half of 2025 compared to 1,362 in the same period last year.
Condominium sales were relatively flat, up just 0.8% year-over-year, with 358 units sold in June 2025 compared to 355 in June 2024. However, year-to-date condo sales show a more noticeable decline—down 6% from 2,234 units in the first half of 2024 to 2,101 this year.
Median Sales Price of Single-Family Homes and Condos | June 2025
Source: Honolulu Board of REALTORS®, compiled from MLS data

The median sales price of a single-family home in June 2025 was $1,125,000, a slight 0.4% increase from $1,120,000 in June 2024. Year-to-date, the median price stands at $1,150,000—up 6% from $1,085,000 in the first half of 2024.
In contrast, condominium prices dipped. The median sales price in June 2025 was $510,000, down 3.8% from $530,000 a year ago. Year-to-date, the condo median price is $507,250, a slight 0.5% decrease from $510,000 in the same period last year.
MARKET SPOTLIGHT
This month, we spotlight the most affordable Oahu neighborhoods. If you’re wondering where single-family homes are selling for under $1 million, and condos are selling for under $500,000, here’s the scoop. Happy hunting.
| Median Sales Price | ||
| Single Family | Year-To-Date | Year-To-Date |
| May 2025 | May 2024 | |
| Ewa Plain | $930,000 | $877,500 |
| Makaha – Nanakuli | $635,000 | $660,000 |
| Wahiawa | $830,000 | $827,500 |
| Waipahu | $957,500 | $950,000 |
| Median Sales Price | ||
| Condo | Year-To-Date | Year-To-Date |
| May 2025 | May 2024 | |
| Kalihi – Palama | $385,000 | $390,000 |
| Makaha – Nanakuli | $217,000 | $242,500 |
| Makiki – Moiliili | $375,000 | $405,000 |
| Moanalua – Salt Lake | $415,000 | $437,000 |
| Pearl City – Aiea | $465,000 | $460,000 |
| Wahiawa | $310,000 | $347,500 |
| Waikiki | $449,000 | $430,000 |
| Waipahu | $496,000 | $520,000 |
| Windward Coast | $365,000 | $465,000 |
